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We Can Help With Your Bitcoin-Themed Super Bowl Prop Bet – FiveThirtyEight

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Published Feb. 8, 2022
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It’s Super Bowl week, and that means it’s time for a yearly tradition that is near and dear to our hearts: analyzing silly proposition bets that have nothing to do with the game’s outcome. 
Each year during the Super Bowl, sportsbooks around the world offer prop bets on everything from the result of the opening coin toss to the person the Super Bowl MVP will mention first in his speech. Typically, books are quite careful about the odds they post and the bets they accept. After all, if they weren’t cautious, they wouldn’t be in business for long. But the Super Bowl makes everyone a little bit crazy, and books can sometimes offer good odds on exotic bets that are hard to properly price. And the wagers make for interesting puzzles. In previous years, we’ve analyzed props on how long Gladys Knight would take to sing the national anthem, the most likely opening song in Jennifer Lopez’s halftime show, and which word Amanda Gorman would utter first during the performance of her pregame poem.
This year we’re conducting our most ridiculous analysis yet: We attempt to handicap whether the price of bitcoin will rise or fall during the Super Bowl. As of this writing,1 the odds that bitcoin — the cryptocurrency that some love, and others love to hate — will rise are slightly higher than the odds that it will fall, at least according to the online sportsbook Bovada. The money line for the wager that the price of bitcoin will rise is currently priced at -130, which represents an implied probability of 56.5 percent (inclusive of the sportsbooks’ margin, or vigorish). Meanwhile, the line for a bitcoin Super Bowl retreat is even, good for an implied probability of 50 percent. Bovada apparently believes the bulls will be out on Super Bowl Sunday, pumping up the price of bitcoin. But is it on the right side of this particular wager?
Before we answer that question, we should first delve into the drivers of bitcoin price fluctuations — and there are a lot of fluctuations. Unlike other tradable assets like commodities or equities, bitcoin’s price doesn’t typically move on changes in the cryptocurrency’s underlying fundamentals. The code that controls bitcoin continues to change as new features are added, but the basic underpinnings of the cryptocurrency that affect the scarcity — and thus, at least ostensibly, the price of a bitcoin — have been fairly stable over the past decade.2 Instead, the price of bitcoin is driven by speculation. Investors bet on what other investors will do in the future, and if enough people believe that other people believe that bitcoin will go up in price, and act on it, bitcoin will indeed go up in price. Some refer to this type of behavior as a speculative bubble, and we’ll be engaging in exactly this type of analysis to understand which side of this wager to bet.
First, to ground our expectations, we need a base rate. We used BTC closing price data posted on Kaggle by Mark Zielinski from 2012 through March 2021, collected at one-minute intervals from various exchanges.3 We filtered the price data to just those trades that occurred from the kickoff to the final snap of each Super Bowl since 2013.4
Beginning with the Harbaugh Brothers’ Blackout Bowl, the first four Super Bowls of the bitcoin era ended with the price of the cryptocurrency lower than when the game started. It wasn’t until 2017 — when now-noted cryptocurrency enthusiast Tom Brady led the New England Patriots to a historic comeback after falling behind 28-3 to the Atlanta Falcons — that bitcoin ended its first Super Bowl with a price higher than when the game started. The tenacious currency followed its first win with another in Super Bowl LII. Two years of losses followed in Super Bowl LIII and Super Bowl LIV before bitcoin rebounded last year in Brady’s final Super Bowl win, with Tampa Bay.
It’s perhaps fitting that the only Super Bowls over the past nine years in which bitcoin’s price rose were ones that involved Brady. Or maybe it’s just because Brady played in so damn many Super Bowls. But while Brady won seven of the 10 times he stepped on the field for a championship game, bitcoin has fared much worse: In six of the past nine Super Bowls, the cryptocurrency has lost value over the course of the game.
With this base rate of 66.6 percent in hand, we can look for reasons to adjust our expectation for bitcoin’s price at the end of Super Bowl LVI. Most promising for bitcoin bulls: The last time bitcoin was coming off an all-time high at the end of a calendar year, and subsequently followed that peak with an implosion of at least 40 percent of its total value, bitcoin’s price rose in the Super Bowl. In late 2017, bitcoin reached a then-record high of nearly $20,000, only to promptly set itself on fire in early 2018 and drop to a pregame Super Bowl LII price of $7,876. Bitcoin’s Super Bowl dead cat bounce was large, as bitcoin rose all the way to $8,238 by the end of the game. 
Bitcoin faces a similar situation this year. After peaking at $67,549 in early November, it dipped below $40,000 last month and is currently trading around $42,000 heading into Super Bowl LVI. Speculators could leverage the game to try to pump up the price, especially if Crypto.com airs its commercial starring Matt Damon reminding viewers that “fortune favors the brave.”
We concede that the chance of a price drop is probably lower than 66.6 percent, but there are other reasons to short bitcoin in-game. The Super Bowl attracts millions of viewers each year, but the share of 18- to 49-year-olds that watch the game has been steadily decreasing during the bitcoin era. In 2013, 50.2 million people in the “key demographic” watched the Super Bowl. In 2021, that number was just 34.3 million. If most bitcoin speculators are men between the ages of 18 and 45, the Super Bowl seems to have become a less reliable way to reach them.
And finally, a pump isn’t worth much to a pumper without a subsequent dump. If speculators see bitcoin’s price spike during the game, they may sell en masse to lock in their profits. Most of the recent bitcoin price charts show this pattern of sell-offs after a second-half price spike, and that seems more likely than not to repeat. All of which makes a wager on bitcoin’s price falling during the Super Bowl at even money a solid value bet. 
Best of all, you don’t have to buy fake money to potentially profit from betting against bitcoin. Bovada and other sportsbooks still accept dollars, and they still settle their bets with actual United States legal tender. Good morning, crypto fam.
Check out our latest NFL predictions.
5 p.m. Eastern on Feb. 7.
For instance, bitcoin has had no “hard forks” — changes to the code that obsolete previous versions of the software — since 2012.
Closing price is the price of bitcoin at the end of each one-minute interval.
There is not enough BTC trade data to conduct a price analysis for earlier Super Bowls. Some timestamps are missing trade or activity info; as a result, the earliest available transactions for the Super Bowls held in 2013 and 2014 are in the fourth and 35th minutes of play, respectively. Additionally, the latest available data for the 2013 Super Bowl is also five minutes before the final whistle. All other Super Bowls have closing prices available for the first and last minute.
Josh Hermsmeyer is a football writer and analyst.
Filed under
NFL (901 posts) Super Bowl (44) Super Bowl LVI (4) Prop Bets (3) Bitcoin (2)
© 2022 ABC News Internet Ventures. All rights reserved.

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Bitcoin slips lower, and South Korea issues arrest warrant for Terra's Do Kwon – CNBC

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Bitcoin slips lower, and South Korea issues arrest warrant for Terra’s Do Kwon  CNBC
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Latest Stock Market News for Sept. 27, 2022 – The New York Times

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Concerns about rising interest rates and the prospects of a global slowdown remain.
Follow our latest coverage of business, markets and economy.
Isabella Simonetti and
Sept. 30
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Data delayed at least 15 minutes
Source: FactSet
By: Ella Koeze
Unease on Wall Street continued on Tuesday, bringing the stock market to its longest losing streak since February 2020, even as trading in global markets started to calm after days of turmoil in everything from currencies to oil prices.
Trading was volatile. After an early gain, the S&P 500 changed course and ended 0.2 percent lower for the day, its sixth consecutive daily decline and a new low for the year. The last time the S&P 500 recorded a drop for that many days was in February 2020, when investors were shaken at the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic.
The S&P 500 has dropped 6.5 percent over the past six trading days. Market sentiment has turned sharply since a summer rally lifted the index some 17 percent from a June low, as investors have faced up to the idea that central banks around the world won’t slow down their campaign to raise interest rates to combat inflation, even if that threatens the economy.
The hard line from central bankers, who are trying to control the price increases that are running at their fastest pace in decades, has analysts predicting that a recession is more likely for the United States, Britain and continental Europe.
“It’s looking very clear now that the major central banks are not going to blink in bringing down inflation at the cost of growth,” said Rob Subbaraman, head of global macro research at Nomura. “I’m more worried about Europe than the U.S. in terms of the depth of the recession.”
Several central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, raised rates last week, with more increases in store.
On Tuesday, Charles Evans, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said in a speech that “we will need to raise rates further and then to hold that stance for a while” to tame inflation.
Stock trading in Europe and Asia was steadier than in recent days, but some major benchmarks still ended slightly lower. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index fell 0.13 percent, while in Asia, Japan’s Nikkei climbed 0.5 percent and South Korea’s Kospi composite index gained 0.1 percent.
The Shanghai composite index rose more than 1 percent. Reuters reported that Chinese market regulators had asked brokers to help stabilize domestic stock markets ahead of an important Communist Party congress next month.
In Britain, the center of financial turmoil in recent days, the FTSE 100 dropped about half a percent, while the British pound climbed to $1.072, a day after touching a low point against the dollar. Investors there have been rattled by the government’s announcement on Friday of a sweeping plan to cut taxes and increase borrowing.
Raphael Bostic, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said on Monday that the severe market reaction to the British government’s proposals reflected a fear that the “new actions will add uncertainty to the economy.”
In the United States, “the key question will be, what does this mean for ultimately weakening the European economy, which is an important consideration for how the U.S. economy is going to perform,” Mr. Bostic said in an interview at a Washington Post event.
When asked whether the instability emanating from Britain increased the chance of a global recession, Mr. Bostic said, “I think it doesn’t help it.”
Oil prices regained some lost ground on Tuesday, with the price of West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, rising 2.3 percent, to about $78.50 a barrel. The gains came as some oil producers in the Gulf of Mexico, including Chevron and BP, said they would evacuate some staff from oil platforms as Hurricane Ian made its way toward Florida.
On Friday, oil prices had dropped below $80 a barrel for the first time since January.
Jeanna Smialek and Joe Rennison contributed reporting.

The new British government’s plan for tax cuts, borrowing and spending will be met with a “significant” response by monetary policy officials, Huw Pill, the chief economist of the Bank of England, said on Tuesday. That could pit the central bank’s effort to reduce inflation by cooling demand against the government’s desire to stimulate the economy.
At the end of last week, Kwasi Kwarteng, the chancellor of the Exchequer, spooked financial markets when, without citing an independent fiscal and economic assessment, he revealed plans for the biggest tax cuts in half a century and an increase in government borrowing. On Monday, the pound dropped to a record low against the U.S. dollar, and analysts began to predict it would soon reach parity, or a one-to-one exchange rate. British borrowing costs shot higher as bond yields jumped to the highest levels in more than a decade, disrupting the mortgage market as traders bet the central bank would have to raise interest rates aggressively to tame inflation.
In a statement on Monday, the Bank of England appeared to rule out any interest rate increases before its next meeting in early November. Mr. Pill indicated that when the time came for a move it would be “significant,” a word he used often.
“We have all seen the recent significant fiscal news in the past few days,” Mr. Pill said on Tuesday at a conference hosted by Barclays and the Center for Economic Policy Research in London. “That has had significant market consequences as well as significant implications for the macro outlook.”
“It’s hard not to draw the conclusion that all this will require a significant monetary policy response,” he added.
The government’s policies, which include capping energy costs for businesses and households, “will act as a stimulus to demand in the economy,” Mr. Pill added, offering some of the first glimpses into how the bank will assess the recently announced measures.
One criticism of the government’s policies is that they pull in the opposite direction to the central bank’s goal of bringing down inflation, which is near a 40-year high. Last week, the cental bank raised interest rates by half a percentage point, disappointing some who thought that the move would be larger. The next day, the chancellor’s announcement on tax cuts and other measures shocked markets. Since then, traders have added to bets on interest rates to rise even more.
The criticism was echoed by the International Monetary Fund, which on Tuesday said that the government’s “large and untargeted fiscal packages” were undercutting monetary policy. The moves, it added, could also hurt low-income earners.
“The nature of the U.K. measures will likely increase inequality,” the I.M.F. said in a statement.
Mr. Pill also described the changes in British financial assets as significant. He said that these changes were part of a shift in asset prices in response to higher interest rates around the world, but that there was “very clearly a U.K.-specific element.”
Policymakers at the central bank “are certainly not indifferent to the re-pricing of financial assets we have seen,” Mr. Pill said.
Because Britain is a small, open market economy, higher bond yields and a weaker currency have an “important influence” on the cost of financing and price of imports, he said.
On Tuesday, the pound was trading below $1.08, up from its recent lows but still at levels unseen since the mid-1980s. Yields on benchmark 10-year bonds were at 4.51 percent, the highest since the financial crisis of 2008.
In all, the market moves have made the bank’s job of bringing down inflation harder, Mr. Pill said. Inflation is about five times the bank’s 2 percent target, even after seven interest rate increases since late 2021.
“Recent market developments have created their own additional challenges for the pursuit of our target,” Mr. Pill said.

Federal Reserve officials confront a world of rapid inflation, slowing growth and rampant uncertainty coming from turmoil abroad. In spite of all that, they are still predicting that they might be able to cool down the U.S. economy without tipping it into a painful recession.
Economists and markets are dubious, and even central bankers acknowledge that there are risks. But here are some of the reasons they have laid out for why they might be able to pull it off:
America has a strong job market. U.S. employers are still hiring at a solid clip, and the unemployment rate is near a 50-year low. “This gives us some room to maneuver to try to take care of the inflation problem as soon as we can, while the labor market is still strong,” James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said at an event in London on Tuesday.
Job openings are plentiful. Some economists think that the strong job market could provide a cushion, specifically because so many jobs are going unfilled right now. That might mean that job openings could fall as the economy slows — but without unemployment rising as sharply as it has historically amid declining demand. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, called that possibility “plausible” at his news conference last week.
Inflation expectations are stable. Consumers’ longer-term inflation expectations have moderated recently. That's good news, because when consumers and businesses anticipate fast inflation, they can act in ways that make it more likely, such as asking for rapid pay increases or instituting regular price changes. The continued stability gives officials hope that price increases will not be as difficult to stamp out as they were in the 1980s, for instance.
Still, the risks are real. Several Fed officials have pointed to the turmoil abroad — the war in Ukraine, lockdowns in China and uncertainty in Britain — as a threat that could draw the United States into recession. It is also hard to guess how today’s rapid rate increases will play out over time, because their full effect takes a while to show up. And supply chains, while improving, could always become tangled again.
The Fed’s approach offers “a path for employment stabilizing at something that still is not a recession,” Charles Evans, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said on Tuesday during an interview on CNBC Europe. “But there could be shocks.”

The surging dollar is wrecking stock portfolios, clobbering commodity prices and sinking rival currencies. The British pound has been among the most volatile currencies against the dollar, tumbling 5.6 percent over the past seven days, and briefly hitting a record low on Monday of $1.0327.
But one asset has been relatively calm over the past week: Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency has risen 6.5 percent over the past seven days, a surprisingly strong run that has caught the eye of crypto bulls and bears.
“You know we’ve reached a unique time in history when #Bitcoin suddenly is less volatile than fiat currencies,” tweeted Sven Henrich, the founder of NorthmanTrader, a markets research firm. Mr. Henrich was one of the most prominent bears during the recent bull market, warning about overpriced assets like crypto.
When central banks raised interest rates, Bitcoin largely traded like risky assets, such as tech stocks. But that hasn’t necessarily been the case over the past month. Bitcoin has traded in the green (but only slightly) so far in September, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq is down nearly 10 percent over that period.
But zoom out further, and the picture looks more frightening for crypto bulls. Bitcoin has lost more than half its value in 2022, far underperforming stocks, bonds and most currencies.
The Federal Reserve’s determination to crush inflation in the United States by raising interest rates is inflicting profound pain in other countries. Those increases are pumping the value of the dollar — the go-to currency for much of the world’s trade and transactions — and causing economic turmoil in both rich and poor nations, writes Patricia Cohen of The New York Times.
On Monday, the British pound touched a record low against the dollar as investors balked at a government tax cut and spending plan.
And China, which tightly controls its currency, fixed the renminbi at its lowest level in two years while taking steps to manage its decline.
The dollar is the world’s reserve currency — the one that multinational corporations and financial institutions most often use to price goods and settle accounts. Roughly 40 percent of the world’s transactions are done in dollars, whether the United States is involved or not, according to a study done by the International Monetary Fund.
And now, the value of the dollar compared with other major currencies like the Japanese yen has reached a decades-long high. The euro, used by 19 nations across Europe, reached 1-to-1 parity with the dollar in June for the first time since 2002.
In an anxious world, the dollar has traditionally been a symbol of stability. The worse things get — like during a pandemic or war, or amid climate disasters — the more people buy in dollars. And however cloudy the economic outlook is in the United States, it’s still better than in most regions.
Rising interest rates make the dollar all the more alluring to investors by ensuring a better return. That means they are investing less in emerging markets, further straining those economies.
The unusual concatenation of events is making things even worse for countries that might otherwise be able to take advantage of a devalued currency to export more of their own goods, which have become cheaper.

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Bitcoin still dominates total payments on BitPay despite the bear market – Cointelegraph

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Total crypto payments on BitPay remained stable despite the bear market, with monthly transactions surging from around 58,000 in 2021 to 67,000 in 2022.
The cryptocurrency bear market has had an impact on how people pay with crypto, but Bitcoin (BTC) remains a major payment tool despite huge volatility, according to data from BitPay.
The share of Bitcoin payments in the total BitPay transactions has been shrinking amid the ongoing cryptocurrency winter, but it’s still the most popular cryptocurrency for payments on the platform.
The sales volumes of Bitcoin-based payments on BitPay accounted for as much as 87% last year and dropped to 52% in the first quarter of 2022 amid the bear market, BitPay’s vice president of marketing Merrick Theobald told Cointelegraph. In contrast to the number of transactions, Bitcoin sales volumes on BitPay are associated with the total value of crypto payments processed in Bitcoin.
Theobald noted that BitPay observed a sales volume impact mainly among non-stablecoin purchases as stablecoin sales continued to occur regardless of crypto price fluctuations.
Theobald stressed that overall BitPay transactions remained stable despite the market decline, with monthly transactions surging from around 58,000 in 2021 to 67,000 transactions in 2022.
In line with sales volumes, the amount of Bitcoin payment transactions has also been significantly falling this year. According to data from BitPay, the BTC transaction share dropped from 57% in March to 48% in July.
On the other hand, BitPay users have been increasingly paying in other cryptocurrencies like Litecoin (LTC), as LTC transactions surged from 14% in March to 22% in July.
Despite a massive drop in Bitcoin payments amid the bear market, BTC still remains the cryptocurrency most commonly used for transactions on BitPay and makes up more than 50% of all sales on the platform. According to Theobald, that is another evidence that Bitcoin’s payment utility use case — the one originally described by BTC creator Satoshi Nakamoto — is still relevant. The exec said:
Theobald also suggested that some users might have preferred to pay with Bitcoin amid the bear market because it can be more expensive to sell BTC at an exchange and use it later to buy items online. “BitPay provides customers with a more direct and less expensive way to use their Bitcoin to buy everyday items,” he added.
Related: Bank of Russia agrees to legalize crypto for cross-border payments: Report
BitPay is one of the largest cryptocurrency payment companies in the world, allowing individuals and businesses to buy products and services with crypto or accept crypto as payment. BitPay provides crypto payment services to a wide number of companies in the United States, including Newegg, Verifone and Shop.com. The BitPay platform has also gained popularity for administrative payments and donation campaigns in the United States.
The news comes amid JPMorgan reporting on decreasing demand for cryptocurrencies as a payment method over the past six months. Takis Georgakopoulos, JPMorgan’s global head of payments, said that the bank has been handling significantly fewer crypto payments, reportedly stating that JPMorgan sees “very little” demand for such payments right now.

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