Connect with us

NFT

NFTs: four “secrets” to understand their real value – Domus

Published

on

If we take a look at the Bitcoin price chart, it’s quite easy to picture the ever-growing number of investors who, since the cryptocurrency’s first peak in June 2016, have found themselves spending one or more nights staring at those green and red lines, studying spikes and dips, desperately searching for a pattern that would help them predict the currency’s future value. Is it ever possible to predict the value of a cryptocurrency? How about the value of an NFT?
In March 2021, following the worldwide news that the NFT associated with the work of art by US artist Beeple Everydays: the First 5000 Days had just been sold by Christie’s for almost 40,000 Ether, corresponding to $69.3 million at the time of sale, researchers at the Alan Turing Institute decided to set up a data collection and analysis system that would tell the story of the NFT market from June 2017 to April 2021, covering a total of 6.1 million transactions. The recently published article Mapping the NFT revolution: market trends, trade networks, and visual features attempts to identify which factors determine the selling price of an NFT.
In just one year, the non-fungible tokens (NFTs) market has grown from around $340 million to $14 billion, and while some people are still questioning the point of investing in a .jpg and others are protesting against the environmental impact of proof-of-work transactions, luxury brands and auction houses, from Gucci to Sotheby’s, are rushing to launch their metaverse – a series of virtual places where it is now possible, among other things, to collect avatars and game items, wear digital designer clothes and exhibit intangible works of art, all easily purchased in the form of NFTs. In this new market, art and fashion come surprisingly second, imitating and seeking collaborations with the video game industry, while Morgan Stanley claims that in less than ten years, 10% of the luxury industry will be made up of NFTs bought, purchased and above all – get this! – rented, in the metaverse.
Homer Pepe, the currently most expensive and rarest NFT card of the first NFT collection to collect public success: Rare Pepe Wallet, created in 2016. The last auction that saw it as protagonist dates back to 2018, purchased in Ethereum for a value corresponding to approximately 320,000 dollars.
Genesis is the first NFT generated among the CryptoKitties, the collection that brought NFTs to the limelight, the kittens that congested the Ethereum network for the unexpectedly high number of sales, a few days after their release in December 2017. Genesis is born in November 2017 and is currently owned by Stimpson J. Cat who purchased it for the sum of 246926 Ether currently corresponding to approximately $ 750,000.
MoonCat #3531 belongs to a collection launched in 2017, and which was recently “adopted” by Sotheby’s: the MoonCat.
Sir Gregory is currently the most valuable NFT on Axie Infinity, the NFT-based online video game that in recent months has seen its users and consequently also the value of its tokens soar. Purchased in June 2021 for the sum of 369 Ether, currently corresponding to 800,000 Dollars. The rarity value of these characters, usable in the game, depends on their attributes and their “mystical parts”. Sir Gregory has three attributes: “Pink Turnip claws”, “Dreamy Papi eyes” and "Lam Handsome fangs” and a “Shiba tails”, apparently very popular.
Currently on sale in Sotheby’s Metaverse, Color is an NFT work composed of a generative script and therefore capable of generating almost infinite forms. Color is the perfect example of what can be found on Art Blocks, a collection of generative content hosted on the Ethereum network.
The legendary work of the artist and video game creator David OReilly, sold on the site of the Japanese auction house SBI Auction in November 2021 for the sum of approximately 12,000 dollars. Among other things, the artist declared: "POTATO literally represents my Irish roots, while as an NFT, depicts my future as a cyber-organic hybrid. POTATO embodies the collision between the past and the future.⁠ "
One of the database views of Mapping the NFT revolution: market trends, trade networks, and visual features. The densest clusters display very active moments in the history of a collection.
Homer Pepe, the currently most expensive and rarest NFT card of the first NFT collection to collect public success: Rare Pepe Wallet, created in 2016. The last auction that saw it as protagonist dates back to 2018, purchased in Ethereum for a value corresponding to approximately 320,000 dollars.
Genesis is the first NFT generated among the CryptoKitties, the collection that brought NFTs to the limelight, the kittens that congested the Ethereum network for the unexpectedly high number of sales, a few days after their release in December 2017. Genesis is born in November 2017 and is currently owned by Stimpson J. Cat who purchased it for the sum of 246926 Ether currently corresponding to approximately $ 750,000.
MoonCat #3531 belongs to a collection launched in 2017, and which was recently “adopted” by Sotheby’s: the MoonCat.
Sir Gregory is currently the most valuable NFT on Axie Infinity, the NFT-based online video game that in recent months has seen its users and consequently also the value of its tokens soar. Purchased in June 2021 for the sum of 369 Ether, currently corresponding to 800,000 Dollars. The rarity value of these characters, usable in the game, depends on their attributes and their “mystical parts”. Sir Gregory has three attributes: “Pink Turnip claws”, “Dreamy Papi eyes” and "Lam Handsome fangs” and a “Shiba tails”, apparently very popular.
Currently on sale in Sotheby’s Metaverse, Color is an NFT work composed of a generative script and therefore capable of generating almost infinite forms. Color is the perfect example of what can be found on Art Blocks, a collection of generative content hosted on the Ethereum network.
The legendary work of the artist and video game creator David OReilly, sold on the site of the Japanese auction house SBI Auction in November 2021 for the sum of approximately 12,000 dollars. Among other things, the artist declared: "POTATO literally represents my Irish roots, while as an NFT, depicts my future as a cyber-organic hybrid. POTATO embodies the collision between the past and the future.⁠ "
One of the database views of Mapping the NFT revolution: market trends, trade networks, and visual features. The densest clusters display very active moments in the history of a collection.
These staggering numbers raise further doubts and questions: Is this a bubble destined to get bigger and bigger as long as there are newcomers, and then to finally pop, or is it an investment capable of securing forms of “eternal passive income”, especially when NFTs can be rented out? From a conversation with two of the authors of Mapping the NFT revolution, some questions were finally answered.
Mauro Martino, director of the Visual Artificial Intelligence Lab at the MIT-IBM Research AI Lab in Cambridge, and Andrea Baronchelli, head of the Economic Data Science team at the Alan Turing Institute, tell us how from the very beginning – that is, since the rise of CryptoKitties (2017), one of the very first successful experiences in the world of NFTs – what we will call the first secret of the value of NFTs was already very clear: the sale value of NFTs depends on the community that supports them.
Here we are at the dawn of a new digital age. While we ask ourselves whether it makes more sense to invest in a sweatshirt made of only pixels from the “Balenciaga x Fortnite” collection, or in a piece of land next to rapper Snoop Dogg’s villa on the Sandbox metaverse, or simply in a digital potato, like the one sold by Irish artist David OReilly on the website of Japanese auction house SBI Art Auction, we should look, first of all, more than at the object for sale, at the potential fan base that supports it.
According to the researchers, this leads us to discover the “second big secret” of the sales value of NFTs: communities and capital are more likely to nest around collections or gamified experiences than episodic sales.
In Mapping the NFT revolution we discover that the greatest NFT buyers, the so-called whales, aren’t a lot – “the top 10% of traders alone make 85% of all transactions” – and tend to get attached to a single collection, making “at least 73% of their transactions in their main collection”. It is hardly surprising that companies traditionally associated with the world of sticker and card collecting, such as the NBA, MotoGP, Panini or Magic the Gathering, have jumped into the fray, quickly creating their own digital marketplaces.
As Martino and Baronchelli explain, the NFT landscape varies greatly depending on the industry it belongs to. There is the art world, where newly formed crypto marketplaces such as Foundation, Rarible and Nifty Gatheway fight against traditional auction houses. There are NFTs belonging to the “Metaverse” category, which would make no sense to exist outside of that world, as well as NFTs generated by the “Gaming” industry. Finally, there is the “Collectibles” category, the virtual counterpart of collectible cards, which could be considered as a kind of progenitor to imitate.
In Mapping the NFT revolution’s prediction system, half of which is based on data from previous sales, a big variable is the visual appearance of NFTs, analysed using AlexNet, a pre-trained convolutional neural network, which is simply an artificial intelligence that can ‘see’ images and detect recurring patterns. And what it sees is that buyers seem to like similar images. Just like the most mundane textbook instruction in social media management, the consistency of the feed rewards the artist.
The Fortnite X Balenciaga 3D digital clothing collection debuted on the multiplayer video game Fortnite. The multiplayer shooter made by Epic Games is currently the digital environment with the most users in the world.
This “Super Mega Yacht” called The Metaflower is currently the most expensive item in The Sandbox metaverse, purchased for $ 650,000. The Sandbox is currently one of the main metaverse platforms, which has seen its prices rise for collaborations with brands and celebrities such as adidas, Atari, Snoop Dogg, DeadMau5 and Bored Ape Yacht Club, another famous NFT collection.
Gucci recently inaugurated its “Gucci Garden” in the Roblox metaverse, another of the most powerful candidates in the “race to the metaverse”, which has recently opened its doors to other famous brands such as Nike and Sony.
A screencapture of the entrance to the Sotheby’s auction house virtual recreated in the metaverse of Decentraland, another top player in the metaverse and a real NFT real estate. Land plots on Decentraland are purchased with the local currency, MANA. In June 2021, Republic Realm spent an amount equivalent to $ 913,000 on 259 land plots in Decentraland, to transform them into a virtual commercial district called Metajuku, inspired by Harajuku, a famous Tokyo shopping district.
An example of an art gallery in the metaverse, in this case it is the Oasis Artwalk created by NFT Oasis on AltspaceVR.
A small part of the work Unsupervised, created by the famous Turkish-American artist Refik Anadol, exhibited in a royal gallery, the Moma, an exhibition of works created by training an artificial intelligence by feeding it the public metadata of the Moma collection. From 18 November, every three days new Unsupervised works will be revealed and put up for sale on Sotheby’s, following the gamified logic of the NFT market. The cover of this article “Machine Hallucinations – Space _ Metaverse” is part of a similar work by the same artist, created in collaboration with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, also for sale on Sotheby’s NFT platform.
The Fortnite X Balenciaga 3D digital clothing collection debuted on the multiplayer video game Fortnite. The multiplayer shooter made by Epic Games is currently the digital environment with the most users in the world.
This “Super Mega Yacht” called The Metaflower is currently the most expensive item in The Sandbox metaverse, purchased for $ 650,000. The Sandbox is currently one of the main metaverse platforms, which has seen its prices rise for collaborations with brands and celebrities such as adidas, Atari, Snoop Dogg, DeadMau5 and Bored Ape Yacht Club, another famous NFT collection.
Gucci recently inaugurated its “Gucci Garden” in the Roblox metaverse, another of the most powerful candidates in the “race to the metaverse”, which has recently opened its doors to other famous brands such as Nike and Sony.
A screencapture of the entrance to the Sotheby’s auction house virtual recreated in the metaverse of Decentraland, another top player in the metaverse and a real NFT real estate. Land plots on Decentraland are purchased with the local currency, MANA. In June 2021, Republic Realm spent an amount equivalent to $ 913,000 on 259 land plots in Decentraland, to transform them into a virtual commercial district called Metajuku, inspired by Harajuku, a famous Tokyo shopping district.
An example of an art gallery in the metaverse, in this case it is the Oasis Artwalk created by NFT Oasis on AltspaceVR.
A small part of the work Unsupervised, created by the famous Turkish-American artist Refik Anadol, exhibited in a royal gallery, the Moma, an exhibition of works created by training an artificial intelligence by feeding it the public metadata of the Moma collection. From 18 November, every three days new Unsupervised works will be revealed and put up for sale on Sotheby’s, following the gamified logic of the NFT market. The cover of this article “Machine Hallucinations – Space _ Metaverse” is part of a similar work by the same artist, created in collaboration with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, also for sale on Sotheby’s NFT platform.
Martino notices how the sentence of having to be recognisable, the nightmare of every artist and the imposition of every art gallery, is also present in the NFT industry: if Basquiat was forced to be Basquiat, today Mad Dog Jones will be permanently bound to the bright colours of post-vaporwave and to the cyberpunk illustrations that make him Mad Dog Jones, one of the most famous and prolific NFT artists on the scene. Apparently, as Martino and Baronchelli laughingly observe, even the non-fungible token, to sell better, ends up becoming fungible, i.e. potentially replaceable by a series of works that are identical to themselves.
Speaking of artists, here is the “third big secret” of the value of NFTs: the art market is an entirely secondary aspect of the NFT phenomenon. As of June 2020, “the most traded NFTs belong to the games and collectibles categories. Only 10% of transactions are related to the NFTs classified as art”.
We are dealing with a complex technology in its first years of use. We can imagine it, the researchers explain, as a Lego tower with vaults and architraves that the most diverse market forms are trying to mount on top of their castles, or their galleons, or their Lego spaceships. Infrastructures that are juxtaposed with other infrastructures, only to undergo violent processes of adaptation, including collapses, breakdowns and work fatalities.
In this scenario, the art industry is perhaps finding it most difficult to adapt. Attempts to gamify works or create communities around collections seem more forced than ever. And if we look at the success stories from the period of the so-called “NFT Craze” between February and June 2021, the greatest sales were made possible by unique factors that are difficult to repeat: “the first NFT sold by a traditional auction house”, i.e. Beeple, “the first Tweet”, i.e. Jack Dorsey, “the first NFT meme” i.e. Nyan Cat, or “the most famous meme ever” as well as the most iconic figure in the crypto world, i.e. Doge, or indeed one of the few visually and technically coherent digital art collections: Art Blocks.
Who guarantees that so many of the NFTs bought during this period of madness will be resold a second or third time, one, three, ten years from now? So far, the data do not look good: out of 6.1 million transactions, only 20% of NFTs were resold a second time, as Martino and Baronchelli note.
And so, we come to the end of this umpteenth gamification attempt, and thus to the fourth and last “secret”: it is impossible to imagine what the value of current NFTs will be one year from now, let alone in ten years from now, given the speed and the massive amount of works, tokens, platforms and metaverses that are currently on the table.
Remember the dot-com bubble at the end of the 1990s? This is a phenomenon of equal size and greater complexity, the researchers explain. We can assume that, as with dot-coms, when hundreds or thousands of economic proposals proliferate, only a few giants will survive, crushing and absorbing their competitors. In the transition between Web 2.0 and Web 3.0, as Baronchelli suggests, it is possible that the current economic system, where the user participates by enjoying free content while donating his data to a centralised platform that reaps huge profits, will be replaced by a model where the concept of ownership is redistributed among users. Following an observation by Matthew Ball, an acclaimed theorist of the future metaverse: if it wasn’t the New York Times, or any other print media mogul, that developed the most used news feed in the world – *spoiler* it was Facebook –, it will probably not be Facebook Meta that will develop the most frequented metaverse, or who knows what it will be called in three years, the most frequented tokenized virtual space.
Opening image: Machine Hallucinations – Space: Metaverse NFT Collection, Refik Anadol, Sotheby’s, 2021
Editorial DomusEditoriale Domus Spa
Via G. Mazzocchi, 1/3
20089 Rozzano (Mi) –
Codice fiscale, partita IVA e iscrizione al Registro delle Imprese di Milano
n. 07835550158
R.E.A. di Milano n. 1186124
Capitale sociale versato € 5.000.000,00 – All rights reserved – PrivacyInformativa cookie completaGestione Cookies

source

NFT

BabyDoge Unveils AI-Powered NFT Platform – BSC NEWS

Published

on

source

Continue Reading

NFT

NFTs, on the Decline Elsewhere, Are Embraced by Some Museums – The New York Times

Published

on

source

Continue Reading

NFT

Panerai to Include NFT 'Digital Passport' With All Luxury Watches – Decrypt

Published

on

source

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © Diaily Meta News