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Markets: Bitcoin, Ether drop as SEC’s Gensler says crypto firms running out of time to comply with securities laws – Yahoo Finance

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Bitcoin fell below US$17,000 in Thursday morning trading in Asia. The other top 10 non-stablecoin cryptocurrencies by market capitalization also retreated after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler said the crypto industry is running out of time to comply with securities laws. He spoke on Wednesday in an interview with Yahoo Finance.
See related article: SEC’s Gensler says proof-of-stake cryptocurrencies may be securities
Bitcoin fell 1.4% to US$16,847 in the 24 hours to 8 a.m. in Hong Kong, while Ether dropped 3.1% to trade at US$1,232 according to CoinMarketCap.
Leading memecoin Dogecoin saw the biggest losses in CoinMarketCap’s list, falling 4.4% to US$0.095. Polkadot lost 3.7% to US$5.30. Litecoin also fell 3.7% to trade at US$76.96.
Gensler said his agency had sufficient authority to begin holding digital asset firms accountable to securities regulation.
Gensler said crypto exchanges and lending platforms need to come into compliance with those regulations. “They can do that appropriately, working with the SEC, or we can continue on a course with more enforcement actions, and I would have to say that the runway’s getting shorter,” he said.
Gensler said that many crypto firms have been running co-mingled platforms offering lending, trading, hedge funds etc, and such practices will need to end.
He did not specifically address the collapse of Bahamas-based crypto exchange FTX.com. It has been alleged FTX used customer funds from its exchange to trade crypto and make investments through its affiliated brokerage Alameda Research.
Gensler said in September that any proof-of-stake cryptocurrency, such as the US$150 billion Ethereum network, should be considered a security.
U.S. equities finished mostly lower on Wednesday. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 0.5% and the S&P 500 Index finished 0.2% lower for its fifth consecutive day of losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed.
Investors see a recent run of bullish economic indicators conflicting with the comments of U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell last week, when he said the central bank may start to ease the pace of interest rate increases to slow inflation.
U.S. services industry activity came in at 56.5% in November, according to the monthly survey by the Institute for Supply Management released on Monday. A reading of 50% or greater shows the economy is growing, while 55% is considered to be very strong. The U.S. jobs report out Friday showed the economy added 263,000 positions in November or more than the 200,000 expected.
The Fed has increased interest rates since March to try to slow inflation, raising from near zero to a 15-year high of 3.75% to 4%, and has signaled that rates may end up exceeding 5%. The Fed has said it wants inflation in a target range of 2%. The consumer price index showed inflation was running at 7.7% in October, down from 8.2% in September.
See related article: Judge approves subpoenas for 3AC cofounders
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Bitcoin drops to lowest in more than a week, ether slides as FTX collapse ripples through crypto market – CNBC

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Bitcoin has shot up 50% since the new year, but here's why new lows are probably still ahead – The Conversation Indonesia

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PhD Researcher in Finance, University of Bath
Senior Lecturer in Corporate Finance, University of Bath
James Kinsella works part-time as an investment analyst for Tyndall Asset Management.
Richard Fairchild does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

University of Bath provides funding as a member of The Conversation UK.
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To the delight of investors across the cryptosphere, the price of bitcoin (BTC) has rallied over 53% since its low of US$15,476 (£12,519) in November. Now trading around US$23,000, there’s much talk that the bottom has finally been reached for the leading cryptocurrency after a year of painful decline – in November 2021, the price peaked at almost US$70,000.
If so, it’s not only good news for bitcoin but the whole market in cryptocurrencies, since the others broadly move in line with the leader. So is crypto back in business?
The past is littered with various periods of market turmoil, from the global financial crisis of 2007-09 to the COVID-19 collapse in 2020. But neither of these is a particularly good comparison for our purposes because they both saw sharp drops and recoveries, as opposed to the slow unwinding of bitcoin. A better comparison would be the dotcom bubble burst in 2000-02, which you can see in the chart below (the Nasdaq is the index that tracks all tech stocks).
Nasdaq 100 index 1995-2005
Look at the bitcoin chart since it peaked in November 2021 and the price action looks fairly similar:
Bitcoin bear market price chart 2021-23
Both charts show that bear markets go through various periods where prices rise but don’t reach the same level as the previous peak – known as “lower highs”. If bitcoin is following a similar trajectory to the early 2000s Nasdaq, it would make sense that the current price will be another lower high and that it will be followed by another lower low.
This is partly because like the 2000s Nasdaq, bitcoin seems to be following a pattern known as an Elliott Wave. Named after the renowned American stock market analyst Ralph Nelson Elliott, this essentially argues that during a bear phase, investors shift between different emotional states of disappointment and hope, before they finally despair and decide the market will never turn in their favour. This is a final wave of heavy selling known as capitulation.
You can see this idea on the chart below, where bitcoin is the green and red line and Z is the potential capitulation point at around US$13,000 (click on the chart to make it bigger). The black line is the path that the Nasdaq took in the early 2000s. The blue pointing finger above that line is potentially the equivalent place to where the bitcoin price is now.
Bitcoin now vs Nasdaq in the early 2000s
The one other thing to note on the chart is the wavy line that’s moving horizontally along the bottom. This is the stochRSI or stochastic relative strength index, which is an indication of when the asset looks overbought (when the line is peaking) or oversold (when it’s bottoming).
A sign of a coming shift is when the stochRSI moves in the opposite direction to where the price is heading: so now the stochRSI is coming down but the price has held up around US$23,000. This too suggests a fall could be imminent.
Within markets, there is often a game that investors from institutions such as banks and hedge funds play with amateur (retail) investors. The aim is to transfer retail investors’ wealth to these institutions.
This is particularly easy in an unregulated market like bitcoin, because it is easier for institutions to manipulate prices. They can also talk up (or talk down) prices to stir up retail investors’ emotions, and get them to buy at the top and sell at the bottom. This “traps” the irrational investors who buy at higher prices, transferring wealth by giving the institutions an opportunity to convert their holdings into cash.
It therefore makes sense to compare how the retail and institutional investors have been behaving lately. The following charts compare those crypto wallet addresses that hold 1 BTC or more (mostly retail investors) with those holding upwards of 1,000 BTC (institutional investors). In all three charts, the black line is the bitcoin price and the orange line is the number of wallets in that category.
Retail investor behaviour
Institutional investor behaviour pt 1
Institutional investor behaviour pt 2
This shows that since the FTX scandal back in November, which led to the world’s second-largest crypto exchange collapse, retail investors have been buying bitcoin aggressively, resulting in the highest number of addresses holding at least one BTC ever. On the other hand, the biggest institutional investors have been offloading. This suggests that the institutional investors agree with our analysis.
There are those who argue that bitcoin is a bubble and that ultimately cryptocurrencies are worthless. That’s a separate debate for another day. If we assume there is a future for blockchains, which are the online ledgers that enable cryptocurrencies, the key question is when bitcoin will reach the accumulation phase that typically ends a bear phase in any market.
Known as Wyckoff accumulation, this is where the price of the asset repeatedly tests two areas: the upper bound where traders previously sold heavily enough for the price to stop rising (known as resistance), and the lower bound where traders bought heavily enough that the price stopped going down (known as support).
At the point where institutional investors decide the lower bound has proved to be sufficiently resilient – in other words, they think the price is cheap at that level – they will start buying the asset again. That moment is only likely to come after there has been a capitulation.
Of course, history does not repeat itself exactly. It may be this is the first time that retail investors have outsmarted the large institutions, and that the only way is now up.
More likely, however, there is more pain on the way. With a recession on the cards, unprecedented job layoffs and weak retail data coming out of the US, it doesn’t point to the kind of optimism that tends to move markets higher. It would therefore make sense to brace yourself for another plunge in the price of bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market.
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Copyright © 2010–2023, The Conversation US, Inc.

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Crypto Price Today Live: Bitcoin marches to $17K; Solana, XRP & Uniswap rally up to 13% – Economic Times

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